Bent Flyvbjerg, an Oxford University professor, has developed a theory based on the Lego principle to explain why megaprojects often fail. Flyvbjerg posits that just as Lego bricks can be assembled in countless ways, so can the components of a megaproject. However, the complexity of these projects means that they are often plagued by cost overruns and delays.
Flyvbjerg’s research reveals that nine out of ten megaprojects experience cost overruns, with the average project costing 28% more than initially estimated. He attributes this to the “optimism bias” and “strategic misrepresentation” of those involved, who underestimate costs and overstate benefits to secure approval.
To mitigate these issues, Flyvbjerg suggests a shift to a more incremental approach to project planning, akin to building with Lego bricks. Each part of the project should be valuable in its own right, even if the rest of the project fails to materialise. He also recommends that project managers should be held accountable for their estimates and that independent checks on project plans should be conducted.
Despite these recommendations, Flyvbjerg acknowledges that the Lego principle has its limitations. It may not be applicable to all types of projects, particularly those that require a high degree of integration. However, he believes that it offers a valuable perspective for understanding and managing the complexities of megaprojects.
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