Many businesses present ‘hockey stick’ forecasts, predicting exponential growth after a period of flat performance. Yet, these projections often fail to materialise, resulting in a ‘hairy back’ graph of inconsistent growth and decline. This discrepancy stems from an overreliance on the ‘big move’ theory, where one significant action is expected to generate substantial growth.
In reality, sustained growth requires a series of smaller, consistent strides. A study of 1000 companies over a decade found that those making multiple ‘big moves’ had a 50% chance of outperforming their competitors, compared to just 6% for those making a single move.
Moreover, companies that diversified their efforts across several growth levers, such as programmatic M&A and dynamic resource reallocation, were more likely to achieve sustained growth. This approach reduces the risk of relying on a single strategy and increases the likelihood of success.
Thus, businesses need to shift their focus from single, transformative actions to a more balanced approach, incorporating multiple strategies for sustained growth. This shift could be the difference between achieving a ‘hockey stick’ growth trajectory and falling into a ‘hairy back’ pattern of inconsistent performance.