Three of our nine predictions for the next 12 months are:
An agent halves its failure rate on new tasks after a month of customer work, without a model upgrade. This will be a practical measure of continual learning.
An autonomous AI team beats human-led model research on equal time and compute, setting its own agenda. This will help us understand if models are capable of expressing better research taste than the best researchers.
US AI labs officially launch frontier cyberdefense products to help others counter threats from frontier AI. I don’t see any other way around this.