Organizational inertia will likely mean that there’s another decade of humans writing code by hand and having their colleagues review every line of it. Many, if not most, companies will continue to develop software as they have before.
But the most productive software creators will be doing it without programming in any traditional sense. They’ll be directing AIs, creating harnesses, and software factories, and QA and verification systems that ship working software faster than we’ve ever seen before.
And we will have arrived at the point where we have more running, production software written by AIs than written by humans. It’ll be the end of programming.